Analysis of Russian Drone Strike on Poland – Part 1

More than a day has passed since the Russian drone strike on Polish territory, and now we can already outline some general points of this incident, based on available data and the reactions of the parties somehow dragged into this saga. Let’s start with the stats. The officially announced number of enemy drones that entered Polish airspace froze at 19.

But here it’s important to understand: if there are no updates in the form of official statements, that doesn’t mean nothing new has happened. According to Polish press sources, the number was 23. The number of downed drones hasn’t changed —four. And as of Thursday morning, 16 crash sites had been located inside Poland. From what we can tell, the search continues, and there’s a high chance more wrecks will be found.

Poland as the Target

Some technical details have surfaced. The drones that crashed in Poland carried extra fuel tanks. That means the ruZZians prepared them for long routes. This means that at the very least, the overwhelming majority of these drones weren’t just “passing through” Polish skies to swing back into Ukraine and hit targets there. Obviously, Poland itself was the intended target of the Russian drones. That’s why our earlier estimates about the effectiveness of Ukrainian and Polish forces in repelling the attack still hold true.

On top of that, part of drones shot down over Ukraine turned out to have been destined for Poland too — because SIM-card modems from Polish mobile operators were found onboard. That’s needed to establish cheap two-way comms. If they had installed satellite communication equipment, it would have instantly multiplied the cost of each unit, and worse, that gear would almost certainly fall into our hands after interception.

Technical Nuances of Russian Drone Strike

It’s no secret that our specialists carefully extract “Kometa” modules — the secure comms hardware for positioning and navigation — that the ruZZians use in their drones and UMPCs, and then mount them onto our own birds so they can fly freely into enemy territory.

The same logic applies to satellite comms. That’s why they prefer dirt-cheap modems with local SIM cards—getting a low-cost, fully functional comms channel. Such a channel allows mid-flight course corrections, and in some cases, even streaming data back from sensors or cameras onboard. In other words, the flyover of Poland could well have been about recon — collecting data on the operation of various radars, military and civilian alike, in order to map out “corridors” for future drone swarms targeting all sorts of objectives.

So the technical bottom line looks like this: the enemy deliberately prepared a batch of drones to cross into Poland. As a result, 20+ drones violated Polish airspace. Nobody knows how many of the 415 drones launched at Ukraine had the same mission. But this russian drone strike wasn’t just aimed at Ukraine; part of it clearly targeted Poland as well. Our air defenses shot down more than 90% before they reached the border. It’s entirely possible that 50 or more were originally tasked for this mission. Some of them simply didn’t make it — shot down over Ukraine before ever reaching Polish airspace.

Air Defense Response

By Thursday morning, reports still showed no ground-based air defenses in action. Jets handled all four kills. Open sources confirm fighters from Poland, the US, and the Netherlands, with an Italian AWACS directing them. The exact number of jets involved wasn’t disclosed. But let’s just assume each side sent up a standard pair — leader and wingman. That would make at least six fighters in the air, and they managed to shoot down just four drones. If they sent more, NATO likely buried the data to hide weak performance.

Poland’s Air Defense Gap

We’re not describing all this for nothing. The truth is, Poland simply doesn’t have effective ground-based air defense systems optimized for drones. And now reports are spreading online, like this one:

Poland has requested additional Patriot systems from NATO allies to defend against Russian drones.

If true, this is the equivalent of asking for torpedoes and depth charges to fight enemy aircraft. Patriots, with their $1+ million missiles, are great for intercepting hostile jets at long range or ballistic missiles. But the ruZZians haven’t used either, and they’re unlikely to risk it anytime soon. If the Poles are indeed requesting Patriots, that means they aren’t just misjudging the nature of the threat—they’re thinking in terms of the day before yesterday.

Next Part of Amalysis Here