Analysis of Russian Drone Strike on Poland – Part 2

This article is a continuation of our previous analysis of the Russian drone strike on Poland. The next thing that surprises me is that in the Polish segment of the Internet, there are tons of videos showing columns of armored vehicles moving east. And all of this is set to dramatic, ceremonial music. At a glance, it’s clear that this show is aimed at domestic consumption. Presumably, Poles watch it and feel proud of the sheer amount of iron.

What doesn’t seem to bother them is that these armored vehicles completely lack kinetic protection on their top surfaces against drones. There’s even reason to suspect that the tanks and APCs lack basic electronic countermeasures (ECM) against drones.

A Show, Not a Threat

Trying to intimidate the ruZZians with this kind of display won’t work — they’ve felt it on their own skin hundreds of times thanks to Ukrainian drones. So this spectacle only fills them with hope: now the ruZZians will be able to destroy Polish columns just the same way Ukrainians destroy Russian ones.

Any formidable column of new armor, in a real combat scenario, would turn into a heap of burning wrecks in 15–20 minutes — without even spotting the enemy or firing a single shot. Yet to the Poles, armor column looks like a Hollywood movie, and they feel proud.

Two Basic Rules — Forgotten

There’s another point in all this spectacle, and it’s a bit awkward to spell out here. It has two parts. First, the classic rule: never display a weapon unless you’re ready to use it. Or, a specific case: if you see an enemy with a knife in hand — shoot. Second: concentration and/or deployment of forces should happen quickly and be as concealed as possible from the enemy. If you’re seriously preparing for combat, the adversary shouldn’t know when, where, or how many forces and assets you’ve moved.

If you parade everything openly, like the Poles did, the event’s only goal becomes demonstration, not actual readiness.This shows that Poland is not prepared for a serious escalation, and all its steam has gone into the whistle. Keep in mind: Russia has been at war for four years. Military-style shows don’t frighten ruZZians, they simply don’t work.

NATO’s Word Games after drone strike on Poland

And that’s not all. As expected, NATO didn’t dare classify the incident as an attack on Poland, limiting itself to calling it a “large-scale provocation.” But terminology matters: the word “provocation” alone doesn’t fully describe the situation. One must define provocation precisely and explain what it was a provocation of. By using just the term “provocation,” NATO brushed aside a real assessment of the events, giving Moscow yet another reason to believe that the Alliance is incapable of not only adequate action but even proper evaluation.

What Moscow Already Thinks

Poland and NATO have already demonstrated the worst they could. They claim the conflict consumes resources and doesn’t give desired results.Crucially, the war is long past any blitzkrieg mode. Some even argue that as far back as spring 2022, when the fast-war plan failed, they should have pulled back and, using gained experience, attempted a quick war in other directions — for example, Finland, which wasn’t in NATO at the time.

Now it’s clear that options have multiplied, because NATO lacks a proper understanding of modern war. Most importantly, the ruZZians can use the Ukraine war itself as a critical element of surprise. The formula is simple: “While the war in Ukraine continues, we have time.” The Kremlin clearly understands this formula and how to exploit it.

And this drone strike on Poland wasn’t random — it was part of some plan. Now let everyone decide for themselves: what kind of plan justifies executing such an attack right now? I have at least two answers to that question, but I’ll refrain from formalizing them for now.