Brief Chronicles of the Second Day of the War

Tonight the rashist orcs didn’t accomplish a single one of the tasks they had set for themselves. The Second Day of the War showed that many early assumptions about a fast Russian victory were wrong: Kharkiv was not taken and not even encircled, Ukrainian forces in the JFO zone are not surrounded, the land corridor to Crimea is stuck, and Kyiv is not only not encircled — they haven’t even reached it.

Main threat: north and northwest of Kyiv

The main, most dangerous direction is north and northwest of Kyiv. And it’s awful that that potato-scum and the Belarusians allowed the orcs to use their land for the attack. The heaviest fighting is happening toward Kyiv on both the right and left banks of the Dnipro from the Belarusian province.

Belarusians, prepare yourselves. Ukrainian mothers will curse you for generations! And don’t whine that it wasn’t you, that it’s pootin with lukashenko. You, filthy bastards, again and again chose and raised your luku and admired pootin. And now from your airfields and your soil death is coming to Ukrainians. May history judge you harshly.

Europe and the world haven’t seen a war like these two days since WWII. With the full spectrum of weapons used.

What gives me real hope is that Viktor Muzhenko has been invited to the General Staff of the AFU. Note — not Khomchak, but Muzhenko. And I understand and accept that in 30–40 hours it’s very hard to build a complex, well-crafted defense strategy while operating on the move.

Logistics, air control and the problem of moving weapons

There is also the logistics problem. You can’t fly cargo now — the orcs completely control the sky, and reconnaissance planes, by the way, are flying along the border with the Belarusian province. Ground transfer takes time and is dangerous, considering at least five theaters of ground combat. And I don’t think our anti-tank weapons and Stingers are evenly distributed across the country. They need to be delivered where they’re needed.

But it already seems to me the orcs are bogged down. Not completely, not yet, but stuck and losing momentum. And once they stop and the shooting duels begin, our guys will burn their armor and turn the biomass into fertilizer.

Logistics strain is the enemy’s weakness

And I also think our side has a plan. The farther the orcs push forward, the longer their logistics lines stretch. One truck carries just two rocket-packets for the Grads at a time. Trucks have to run further and further. And fuel trucks must follow the tanks. Our forces have been doing raids since 2014.

Losses. The orcs’ losses are simply extraordinary. If yesterday they were writing “400 went to Kobzon and Zadornov’s concert,” today the AFU says more than 1,000. It’s clear they’ll breed more scum. But not soon! And these are figures for combat troops, not clerks and fuel-truck drivers.

Armored vehicles and tanks are already in the hundreds. Planes and helicopters in the tens. That’s very, very impressive!

So I’m not worried about the AFU. The guys are fucking the enemy up — even overachieving.

Lessons from Syria don’t apply — real army fights here

Remember how pootin said his army learned to fight in Syria — but we already analyzed the quality of that experience, and back then we noted that essentially the russians were fighting irregular forces there and relied on air power, because the enemy lacked adequate air defenses and certainly had no air force. So what they supposedly learned there is hard to say. Pootin came to believe that with overwhelming air, missile and numerical land advantages, Ukraine would be like a lighter version of Syria. But the Syrian grouping didn’t have even a fraction of the aviation and missiles used in Ukraine. So he assumed Ukraine had nothing to resist that advantage with.

The trick is, here he ran into a regular, clever and highly motivated army that understands the situation and finds ways to compensate for its weaknesses with its strengths. As we see, on the first day the enemy found their losses disproportionately large. Captured occupiers tell interrogators they planned to seize Ukraine in just a few days, and they certainly didn’t expect to end up as prisoners.

Comparing the first day and the Second Day of the War: bigger than Khisham

Remember how the Americans smashed Wagner near Khisham in eastern Syria, and how long the discussions about that took. In the end the russians had to admit 200+ losses. But now compare that with our first day of fighting. There the Wagner had numerical advantage but no air support, while the Americans had total air dominance and technologically destroyed the mercenaries.

So, even allowing that the actual losses there were about 400, our first day yielded an even bigger haul — at least 800 “200.” And in Syria it was the world’s most powerful military that did that; here it’s being done by an army with almost no aviation, very weak air defenses, and practically no long-range missiles to strike enemy concentrations. Under such conditions no army in the world could have fought like this, including the Americans — they wouldn’t wade into a fight without air cover and artillery support. But our army is not just fighting — it’s showing monstrous effectiveness, and the second day brought russia losses twice what the first day did.

Reserves, mobilization and the human factor

One more thing to consider in any estimates. Pootin concentrated his strike groups over 3–4 months, while our reserve call-up only began on the eve of the invasion, and mobilization only after it started. From my own experience I can say this: today the AFU ranks were filled with huge numbers of reservists and mobilized men. There are so many that they can’t process everyone in a single day and are asking people to come back tomorrow. The same goes for the territorial defense. People are joining who are extremely motivated and often lack trench wisdom — they are not inclined to take prisoners. They simply don’t see value in a live enemy and, at the first chance, make him not alive.

In any case, within two to three days the armed forces’ numbers should have at least doubled by modest estimates. And since weapons are coming to us by land — we see it happening live and being reported — the AFU is only now bulking up into fighting shape and hasn’t yet shown its full capacity on the noble field of clearing the orcs, and it’s only just beginning.

In short — we believe in our army, because it’s doing what no one else could have done. The first shock will be processed, methods to negate the russians’ strengths will be analyzed, and then things will take a different turn. The worst is still ahead for the occupier. By that time he will have fired off nearly half his rockets without dealing the damage he wanted to the AFU. And his aviation turned out not to be as effective as pootin had thought. So we do everything we can for our army — and we will win!

Notes / Footnotes

* 200th (dvukhsotyi) — in Ukrainian Army slang means KIA (Killed in Action).