War in Ukraine

Chronicles of Ukraine’s Fight and Resistance

February 22 Massive Strike: Nearly 300 Drones & 50 Missiles

February 22 Massive Strike: Nearly 300 Drones & 50 Missiles

As of 10:00 AM, our Air Force reported on the February 22 massive strike — a combined attack the enemy executed on Ukrainian territory overnight. The enemy attacked Kyiv and the region, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts. Kyiv residents heard and in some places saw our air defense at work.

Unfortunately, what our forces shot down fell on the private sector of Sviatoshyn district. So far, no fatalities are confirmed there. However, judging by the destruction that occurred, casualties may appear after clearing the rubble. This strike deserves breakdown into components because in many ways it became indicative. But first — statistics from the Air Force, because we’ll need them for the rest of the story. Here’s how it looks:

Statistics from the Ukrainian Air Force
Statistics from the Ukrainian Air Force

As Air Force data shows, almost 300 drones and 48 missiles of all types entered Ukrainian airspace. Obviously, the enemy used everything they had at that moment in full readiness for application. Here are the statistics on enemy-launched vs. Air Force-intercepted missiles and drones:

  • Ground-based anti-ship cruise missiles “Zircon” — 4 / 2;
  • Ballistic missiles type “Iskander-M” — 22 / 8;
  • Air-launched cruise missiles Kh-101 — 18 / 17;
  • Ground-based cruise missiles “Iskander-K” — 2 / 2;
  • Air-launched guided cruise missiles Kh-59/69 — 4 / 4;
  • Strike drones “one-way drones” type “Shahed” — 297 / 274;

As a result, 14 missiles and 23 drones got through. Though data on missiles are still being clarified and may change slightly. As of 10:08 AM, we know of 15 injured, including four children.

The Pattern: What Got Through and Why

As easy to notice, the ones that got through were ballistic missiles type “Iskander-M”. Air defense intercepted only slightly more than a third of them. Half of the high-speed “Zircons” got through. One Kh-101 launched from a strategic bomber got through.

We observe the usual picture: ballistic missiles cannot be shot down where coverage of appropriate engagement means doesn’t exist — “SAMP-T” or “Patriots”. This state of affairs is logical and inevitable. It resolves through two paths: either the enemy stops producing such missiles, or air defense strengthens to a degree that covers the largest possible territory. The latter is unrealistic in principle.

The matter is this: air defense means at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can intercept ballistics only on the terminal flight segment and at altitudes of 20–30 km. But most of the flight trajectory of such a missile passes at an altitude of about 100 km. It turns out that even if radar “sees” this missile’s flight, nothing can intercept it until it enters the engagement zone of the appropriate complex. Well, at this time the missile flies almost vertically and at enormous speed. All this means that with the means the Armed Forces of Ukraine have, creating a “wall” along the border with the Swamps* is impossible. Their missiles simply fly over it.

Terminal vs. Exoatmospheric Interception

The US and Israel have air defense means capable of intercepting ballistics in space — and therefore at significantly greater distance. In principle, such interception means allow creating a continuous “wall” that ballistics can no longer overcome without incident.

Ukraine doesn’t have such air defense and the enemy knows this. They target areas outside the domes, hoping to bypass defenses or force Ukraine to spread systems too thin. Therefore, our air defense means allow providing a local “dome” in a specific place. The February 22 massive strike demonstrated clearly, everything outside this dome remains unprotected specifically for missiles with ballistic flight trajectories. At least until our good birdsmake a few more visits to the enemy plant producing Iskanders.

*Swamps – an ironic name for Russia, emphasizing decay, stagnation, and filth. The Commander of the USF, Robert Browdie, and most soldiers use this word.

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