Kazakhstan ignores war risks and it Protest Wrong Side

November 30, 2025December 3, 2025

There’s an old wisdom: “Stay silent and pass for smart“. The Kazakhstan government confirmed it this weekend. Let’s recall: good birds attacked Novorossiysk port again. The strike damaged — essentially destroyed — one of the key nodes of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium loading terminal. Kazakhstan uses this system to export its oil westward. In response, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested to Ukraine. But it would have been better if it hadn’t. The protest immediately revealed the short-sightedness of its own government. Kazakhstan ignores war risks for four years, then complains when consequences arrive.

We’ve long grown accustomed to the stench spread by Pootin’s bitches like Orban or Lukashenko. We hoped Kazakhstan’s government wouldn’t join them, but…

Four Years of War, Zero Planning

russia has been at war with Ukraine for 11 years now, and for almost four of them, it’s been waging full-scale war using aviation and missiles. Strikes regularly hit residential buildings, shopping centers, hospitals, and other civilian infrastructure. Simply put, Orcs¹ absolutely don’t limit themselves. Any country should understand that the nature of combat operations russia conducts in Ukraine since February 2022 should have removed any restrictions from Ukraine in choosing targets.

And the Orcs’ rhetoric about “liberating” something in Ukraine should have brought Kazakhstan to its senses in particular. It’s understandable, after all, since moscow’s plans include “liberation” of Kazakhstan itself. Moreover, this isn’t just open rhetoric of their propaganda — the general staff has long developed corresponding operational plans that can be launched at any moment. But as far as we can understand, Kazakhstan decided not to notice such development of the situation in Ukraine and not to consider what’s happening as war. This is their choice, which entails corresponding consequences.

Business Risks in Wartime

But every country or company of any country is obliged to consider realities, understanding that it has relations with a warring country, which creates quite definite risks for conducting any forms of business with it. Simply put, any risk manager of a solid insurance company would explain to the government that starting from February 2022, all of Kazakhstan’s assets on federation territory became so risky that his company would either refuse to insure such assets or demand such a high insurance premium rate that it would be multiple times or even an order of magnitude higher than if there were no state of war.

What did Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs imagine? War in such a way that Orcs would strike our port infrastructure, our and foreign vessels near Ukrainian ports, destroy energy facilities, and we would refrain from mirror responses on the same objects just because Kazakhstan drives its oil to Novorossiysk? And why would that be? Their press writes about it like this:

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which more than 1% of world oil supplies go, on Saturday reported a shutdown after one of the single point mooring devices at its Black Sea terminal was seriously damaged as a result of an attack by unmanned boats. Further operation of SPM-2² is not possible.

The Alternative Kazakhstan Ignored

From the beginning of the full-scale phase of war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s government was obliged not just to start searching but to find and already implement a bypass route for its oil exports. Moreover, Azerbaijan and Turkey offered more than once or twice to connect oil exports to Azerbaijan’s existing pipeline system, which allows loading oil into tankers not only at Black Sea ports but also at Mediterranean ports.

But Kazakhstan’s government turned out to be so inert and short-sighted that in four years it made absolutely no real steps to implement such a project. Apparently, Kazakh officials listened too much to Orcs’ stories about Novorossiysk being covered by such dense defense systems that even a mosquito couldn’t fly there.

This faith didn’t dissipate even after good birds visited Orcs’ strategic objects — for example, the Engels-2 airbase. Kazakhstan ignores war risks even when evidence mounts. There wasn’t any increased activity from Kazakhstan’s government after the first massive raid on Novorossiysk. By then, it was already clear to everyone that this location had become a target for our drone strikes. The vaunted air defense of the orcs protecting the city had been taken out to practically zero.

Too Late to Start Looking

And so, as soon as it hit CPC equipment, Kazakhstan activated work on searching for alternative routes to export its oil. But “search” is a loud definition, because with local geography there’s nothing to search for in principle. The only real bypass option is a pipeline to Azerbaijan and further west. Simply put, it’s the same option that has long been on Kazakhstan government’s table as a proposal from Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Implementation of this project stalled precisely in Kazakhstan. If there had been a political decision from its leadership, the project would already have been implemented or would be at the final construction stage, which would have helped avoid the consequences that came right now. And probably, the decision to shelve the new project has specific authors whose names should be given to the public, instead of fussing about with pointless protests.

Kazakhstan Government’s Strange Behavior Explained

It’s already clear to everyone that such Orc assets are becoming relevant targets for Ukraine. Regular strikes hit them until their complete decommissioning. Something tells us that the strike that hit the CPC terminal won’t be the last. And now the question arises: what was Kazakhstan’s government doing, seeing the war’s expanding scale? How did it happen that they didn’t use a four-year head start to finally withdraw their assets from a warring and obviously unfriendly Russia?

The government’s behavior becomes even stranger when you realize they had every warning, every opportunity, and every reason to act. They chose not to. Now they protest Ukraine instead of protesting their own incompetence. Kazakhstan ignores war risks for four years, then complains to the victim. Stay silent and pass for smart — they should have remembered that wisdom before opening their mouths.

¹Orcs – a common term for Russians who support or participate in the armed aggression against Ukraine. Dehumanizing? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.

²SPM-2 – Single Point Mooring device, a loading facility extended into the sea that allows ships to avoid approaching piers.