Result of Belgorod dam strike: Warning or Strategy?

October 27, 2025October 28, 2025

In the flow of news coming from the front right now, such a mess formed that it suggests this happened not by chance. For this very reason, we now avoid topics related to events on the front. More precisely, on its hottest sections. However, official comments or speeches by persons who undoubtedly have reliable information and were not noticed in manipulations allow us to reason about some specific events. Separately, we’re talking about the Belgorod reservoir. Our Defense Forces attacked it. As of today, it’s known that the Belgorod dam strike occurred in several stages.

The lock system got damaged there. Because of this, uncontrolled water discharge began. As far as we can understand, we’re talking precisely about the lock. It’s clearly impossible to damage the dam body. The Armed Forces of Ukraine operate at such distances with limited means. From these data, we can conduct a chain of logical reasoning. This helps us try to understand what the purpose of this attack was.

Multiple Waves: Not an Accident

Strikes were delivered in several waves. This means it didn’t fly there by accident. Moreover, strikes were delivered in such a way as to achieve a certain effect. Obviously, in this case, there was no goal to completely destroy the lock. There was no goal to lead to its complete destruction. There was no task to do something like what the enemy did with the Kakhovka HPP dam. In such a case, the goal may turn out not as obvious as they write about it now. The reservoir dam didn’t suffer. The lock wasn’t even destroyed so that water would arrive too quickly. That is, the task to drown the orcs clearly wasn’t the point.

Disrupting Enemy Logistics

Analysts write that this strike aimed to damage enemy troop logistics. These troops operate in this area. They include the 128th, 116th and 136th Pidars* brigades. Also the 22nd, 1009th and 82nd regiments.

Plus, water flooded the Pidars’ positions downstream after the rise. They report the risk of equipment flooding. They also report difficulties with maneuvering. And the Pidars conducting combat operations in small assault groups in Vovchansk found themselves in trouble. They operate in the north of Kharkiv region. Now they’re cut off from the main forces.

Military analysts attributed all this to the goals of the entire operation. But all this is the top layer of the picture. In other words, both goals for the strikes are clearly visible. Does a third, not so obvious one exist?

The Hidden Message: Mirror Response Warning

Let’s remember something important. In addition to the Kakhovka HPP dam, the enemy has already destroyed several dams. They did this in the South and East of Ukraine. They struck dams in Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia and Vyshhorod. At that time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had nothing to respond with.

It’s quite possible that intelligence received data about something similar. They might be preparing this now. Similar proposals sound there regularly. Furthermore, over the past few days, we observed strikes on the substation of the Volgograd HPP. And now we see the Belgorod dam strike on the locks.

Strategic Deterrence?

As we know, promising something to orcs means not respecting yourself. A war is going on now. Words are already useless. Any hints should come through appropriate actions. Therefore, we can perceive this “doublet” as a direct warning. The enemy must calculate any plans of a similar nature. They face the inevitability of a mirror response. Precisely in the form of strikes on reservoir dams. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine can perform something similar. They showed their ability. They also showed their determination.

The result of the Belgorod dam strike may be more complex than it initially appears: the Khimki reservoir in moscow hasn’t gone anywhere. There are much more communications in the center of moscow. We can also consider these strikes a message to Putin. If he tries to strike the dam of the Kyiv or Cherkasy reservoir, he should prepare something. The center of moscow will swim. Does the version about such a message have a right to exist?