Russian Air Defense Collapse: Path to Hell Like Black Sea Fleet

March 15, 2026March 15, 2026

Still cautiously, but nevertheless it’s possible to state that enemy air defense started the same path that russian tanks and the russian Black Sea Fleet previously traveled. The path to hell. Everyone knows that before the full-scale invasion began, the enemy had colossal superiority in anti-aircraft means — both regarding weapons and ammunition for them. But gradually the situation started changing. For quite a long time now, Ukraine’s Defense Forces have been taking out anti-aircraft installations and air defense missile storage facilities, and this is especially noticeable in temporarily occupied Crimea. Russian air defense collapse across the peninsula marks an another turning point in this war.

The Crimea Utilization Polygon

Simply recall that at the beginning, Crimea’s occupation got justified by the Black Sea Fleet base located in Sevastopol and corresponding infrastructure at various points of the peninsula. Then various military assets in incredible quantities simply started pulling there — and not only fleet character ones. Through Ukraine’s Defense Forces’ efforts, Crimea became a place in the enemy’s rear that receives the most strikes from the air. Because all strikes get delivered from the air, the enemy makes colossal efforts for its coverage. The Defense Forces constantly “weed” this “garden bed” to reach military targets both on Crimea’s territory itself and further in Krasnodar Krai. For this, “corridors” are needed that the enemy can’t cover with air defense. Precisely cutting through these corridors leads to terrible losses of the opponent’s anti-aircraft means. They understand this there for a long time already. And now they start writing everything openly:

Indeed, Crimea turned out something similar to a utilization polygon for the opponent’s air defense means. Long gone are the times when he could relatively painlessly and quickly close a broken breach in air defense. Ukraine’s Defense Forces took out enemy assets so painfully that there’s long been no fleet base in Sevastopol as such. There’s also no Black Sea Fleet remnants. And now it looks like the situation with Crimea’s anti-aircraft coverage also started moving toward the word “none”.

From Reserves to Strategic Objects

At first, the enemy filled losses from reserves, then — by removing complexes from internal regions in the Far East. Now this possibility turned out exhausted. Filling losses is possible only from newly produced scarce equipment or by stripping extremely important and already strategic objects. But such tactics lead to very painful strikes on locations deep inside ruSSia.

But that’s not all. In 2023-2024, Orcs¹ demonstrated simply huge surplus ammunition for long-range SAM systems like S-300/400. They started hitting Kharkiv and Kherson with these missiles, using them as ballistics. Hard to say into whose bright head such an idea came, but expenditure of this ammunition greatly accelerated. After Ukraine’s Defense Forces lifted several GRAU arsenals into the air, the situation changed cardinally.

Arsenal detonation footage demonstrated that part of these arsenals’ contents were anti-aircraft missiles. We already distinguish well how this ammunition explodes or detonates — especially when they scatter from warehouses with the characteristic white trail of burning rocket fuel. Now the enemy started feeling deficit both of air defense complexes themselves and ammunition for them. Russian air defense collapse shows itself across multiple fronts simultaneously.

The Bryansk Example

As we remember, the recent strike on the Bryansk Kremniy El plant — the enemy didn’t repel at all. Enemy himself explains this by saying that in previous days, ammunition for anti-aircraft means covering this location got exhausted. Supposedly they shot them off at drones going in transit deep into the Swamps. This version is doubtful, but if we take it as basis, then obviously they already started having problems with ammunition too. Moreover, these problems became systemic in character — because holes in air defense are already used by our military across different directions, not only in Crimea.

Daily reports that our drone operators cut out a batch of enemy air defense means became ordinary. Moreover, if you look closely at such reports, strikes on precisely launch installations became rare. What gets struck are either self-propelled SAM systems like Buk, Tor or something similar, or radars of large complexes consisting of separate S-300/400/500 elements. For example, recently our specialists “poked out the eyes” of the super-duper S-500 complex — considered the coolest among all the Anala Govnet² of Orcs. The results of destroying russian air defense show systemic collapse across multiple fronts simultaneously.

New Quality from Quantity

This all says that the enemy’s general air defense system already thinned so much that only centers like moscow or Valdai remained reliable. Everything else already can’t cover enough so the protected asset wouldbe in maximum safety. The result is obvious. If earlier our military “chopped a window” in a certain direction, and while it didn’t close, delivered strikes through it on targets behind it — now it’s different. Simply in one night can arrive at a whole set of targets located far from each other. This night didn’t become an exception, and the enemy writes this about it:

Here from the quantity of taken-out enemy air defense emerges new quality. We know old Donny announced softening sanctions regarding russian oil. But EU countries didn’t remove their own sanctions. They’re not interested in knowing what role-playing games the tufted old man plays together with the bald old man. Therefore they continue detaining ships of Pootin’s shadow fleet, from which he already howls in the bunker.

The southern direction of russian oil is under our Armed Forces sanctions. Ukraine’s Defense Forces methodically destroy the enemy’s transport infrastructure directed at oil and petroleum product export. Under the knife go pumping stations, oil pipelines, port terminals, tankers, and everything else allowing war financing. If we speak in old Donny’s words, it looks like the enemy has almost no cards left. Russian air defense collapse means ruSSia can no longer protect what remains of its oil export infrastructure. Quantity always transitions into quality, and the quantity of destroyed enemy air defense begins manifesting itself fully.

¹Orcs – a common term for Russians who support or participate in the armed aggression against Ukraine. Dehumanizing? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.

²Anala Govnet – wordplay in Russian language: “analagov net” / “anala govnet”. Depending on spacing, it can mean either “no analogs” or “anal sex with shit”. Used ironically for Orc things that never live up to the hype. Example: Lada cars.