Russian Spring Offensive Analysis Continued: What Went Wrong

March 22, 2026March 22, 2026

This is the second part of the Orcs’¹ Spring offensive analysis. Don’t forget to check the first part to get the full picture.

If in broad understanding the enemy lost the ability to schedule the fight’s timing, in local terms they still had a choice. They decided to use maximally favorable conditions in the form of dense fog that enveloped the operational area at spring’s beginning. Probably Orcs decided that under fog cover they could still ensure the surprise effect and catch our military off guard.

Later, both Western and Ukrainian analysts, reviewing masses of photos, videos, and other data, discovered with surprise the enemy used much less armored vehicles than could be expected for such operation type. Instead, for the first time they massively applied… cavalry.

We won’t undertake reasoning on the topic of how they used horses — riding or as tachankas — but about a dozen specialists particularly paid attention to this. Though we suspect mostly these weren’t horses but donkeys. Came out interesting: donkeys riding donkeys. But this is their business, because we bet on drones.

Grill in the Fog

As far as can be understood from Magyar’s sharply ironic comments over the last week, ours precisely knew where enemy host would surface and probably knew when this would happen. Let’s say, after Orcs switched from Starlinks to alternative communication means, listening to their radio conversations became one pleasure. Likely the enemy said all sorts of things they got accustomed to saying with Starlinks, therefore a warm reception awaited Orcs. Additional drone operator units with reinforced drone sets advanced to the needed place. Then the horror “Grill in the Fog” began. As a result, daily General Staff reports started acquiring this appearance:

Magyar himself stated that based on documented data, drone operators alone have 1000+ credited hits. But not only drones worked on the advancing bastards. Important clarification: they struck the enemy not only with drones, but drones guided artillery, MLRS, and some other no less “tasty” means of destruction.

Western observers write that the offensive in orcs started so-so. They couldn’t push Ukrainian Armed Forces, but in 48 hours they laid over three thousand organisms not counting horses. They also point to one more very interesting moment.

Airborne in Defense

Allegedly one of the enemy airborne units got detected not in offense but in defense, which happens extremely rarely and only in emergency cases. From this the conclusion follows that this is precisely such a case and that at minimum part of forces initially designated for offense already sits in defense. Hard to say what Orcs report to their führer. But one thing is clear: they had to report about the offensive’s beginning. But what about results — big question.

Though it’s not excluded they tell him they’re already on Kyiv’s outskirts and as soon as they capture it, freed forces will transfer to the next Kupiansk capture. Everyone knows the bald bastard loves such fairy tales. If they report them with expression and click their spurs, he might ship out a “hero” award. Any honest spring offensive analysis would show catastrophic losses, but führer prefers fantasy over facts. We’ve already seen this in examples of General Sergey Kuzovlyov or Gauleiter of temporarily occupied Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov.

But no less interesting events, indirectly connected to war, occur in the Kremlin dwarf’s very lair itself.

When Propaganda Can’t Hide Reality

The current situation is difficult to hide completely. As said earlier, russian propagandists started publishing very ugly combat action maps that even Deep State doesn’t dare show. They particularly don’t comment on them because these pictures’ very appearance says more than a long story. But a significantly larger number of public who precisely know what and how is happening stay silent simply because comments aren’t their line of work.

They no longer see reasons to hide that the Armed Forces of Ukraine substantially expanded the kill-zone covering most of occupied territory plus a solid chunk of the Rabid Federation’s internationally recognized territory. Instead, Orcs see Ukrainian deep strikes becoming increasingly massive and effective. Strategically important targets get hit at ever-greater distances. Asking in the style “Where is our air defense?” becomes bad form already, because everyone understands air defense doesn’t exist and soon won’t exist at all.

Enemy anti-aircraft means get cut down simply in industrial scales. Moreover, they get hit precisely by what they should shoot down. As a result, no matter who talks about their air defense being one of world’s best, if it can’t protect itself, then you can stop wasting time on fairy tale telling and also on their listening. Against this background, in the Swamps’ very depths, processes go that can no longer be hidden. Today one more scandalous episode from their power elite’s life splashed into public.

Shoigu Attacks Belousov: “Under Me There Wasn’t Such Chaos”

Former Rotten Federation military minister Shoigu made a public statement that earlier Ukraine couldn’t deliver such painful strikes on targets located hundreds of kilometers from it. Now everything up to the Urals already fell into the danger zone. Moreover, the honored reindeer herder talks about how very soon important targets will get hit beyond the Urals too.

Besides fact statement, this speech carried critical subtext addressed to Shoigu’s successor. All of it comes down to a simple formula: under me there wasn’t such chaos. Stones flew not only at acting Minister Belousov but indirectly at the führer himself. Regarding this, enemy sources write:

Shoigu practically directly made it clear the SMO goes wrong and in the wrong direction. We supposedly not only can’t win at the front in any way but also made all Russia vulnerable to strikes, dangerous. Why say this? After all, it’s clear anyway that while war goes on, there’s a threat of enemy attacks. Why specifically draw attention to this?

Andrey Removich is confident: such words from the Security Council secretary are directed personally against vladimir vladimirovich. Now they talk a lot about coup threat in Russia. So this coup is precisely what Shoigu conceived. And already began preparing it with his calculated and very vile statements.

Here’s an interesting turn in the Swamps”. The Spring offensive analysis not only confirms that the Russian “SMO” is going through the ass, we also see the Orcs openly talking about a change of power. In all 26 years of Pootin’s rule, this topic came up publicly only once — during the “March of Justice” staged by cook Prigozhin. Since then the very word “coup” in the Swamps was taboo, but now it again went into public circulation.

Coincidence? Let’s hope not.

¹Orcs – a common term for Russians who support or participate in the armed aggression against Ukraine. Dehumanizing? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.

²Swamps – an ironic name for Russia, emphasizing decay, stagnation, and filth. The Commander of the USF, Robert Browdie, and most soldiers use this word.