RuSSians’ Night Raid on Ukraine 10/10/2025

This was a combined missile and drone raid on Ukraine on 10/10/2025, one of the most intense in recent months, targeting not only critical power facilities but also residential areas across several regions. You can observe the consequences of this strike yourself.

But judging by everything, there was a full set, including aeroballistics, ballistics, cruise missiles, and drones. Analysts note that the scale and coordination of the attack suggest a deliberate attempt to paralyze civilian life ahead of the winter season.

The Raid on Ukraine 10/10/2025 Begins

The enemy attack started Thursday evening, and it looked quite typical. First, drones launched from several locations, and overall their movement got tracked by direction and quantity. At least, it was clear where target groups were moving, and one could assume their movement direction. Well, during the night everything else flew too. As a result, again approximately, the attack looked like this:

If this infographic corresponds to real event development, it follows that Kyiv wasn’t the main target. Ballistics, cruise missiles, and drones flew not only at the capital. But as visible from consequences, some anomaly occurred in the capital. I won’t be surprised if everything flying got let through. Subjectively, this hasn’t happened for several years in a row.

The Kyiv Air Defense Anomaly

A somewhat similar event occurred when the Ohmatdyt clinic was hit by the Orcs. But then air defense actively worked all night. Toward morning, an impression formed that someone flipped a switch, and everything flying at the attack’s final stage got let through. Though before this, most enemy strike means got intercepted.

But today, again — purely subjectively, the situation looked different. From the first air raid signal to the last all-clear signal, personally I didn’t hear air defense work at all. Of course, ballistic interception has its nuances regarding sound. If it happens at some distance, determining whether it was air explosion or strike is possible by certain signs. But this requires instant information about what’s heard ten kilometers away from you.

Today I heard heavy explosion sounds. I can’t say for certain what I heard — strike or ballistic interception. In this sense, I can’t reason whether air defense worked on ballistics, and if it worked, how successfully. But I didn’t hear work on drones. Though usually in my location, this work proceeds so intensively that not seeing it, much less not hearing it, is simply impossible.

This time at minimum three-four drones flew nearby, and they were clearly audible. By flight sound and from numerous raid experience, I approximately know when anti-aircraft means start working — guns and machine guns. Usually it’s several seconds after maximum drone engine sound level. This time, this wasn’t observed. Why — difficult to say.

The Statistics

The Air Force reported night attack statistics as of 10:00, and they look like this:

• Aeroballistic “Kinzhal” — 2/1
• Ballistic “Iskander-M” / KN-23 — 14/4
• Ground-based cruise missiles “Iskander-M” — 12/9
• Guided aviation missiles — 4/1
• Drones of various types — 465/405

Air defense means recorded 13 missile and 60 strike UAV hits at 19 locations. Here it should be clarified that all this data is presented in general form. Everything indicated here flew to different places. What and how much flew at the capital — publicly unknown. But in this case, I’d very much like to see precisely this statistics. The consequences of this attack turned out approximately the same as three years ago. This despite supposedly working out capital defense schemes.

Sabotage Suspicion?

Because no explanations were publicly issued about what happened with air defense when Ohmatdyt got hit — literally all observers noted air defense work absence — there’s an assumption that in this case we have something similar. And it’s not directly related to military. Purely subjectively, this looks like a sabotage act.

MiG-31 Down: Sweet Revenge

But there’s an unexpectedly pleasant moment that became known toward morning. One MiG-31 aircraft that launched “Kinzhals” at Ukraine actually crashed in Lipetsk Oblast. Enemy sources tell that it was performing training flight and accidentally fell. Pilots ejected, and no weapons were aboard. Understandably, such aircraft can lift only one “Kinzhal” missile. It launched it at Ukraine, so it flew back empty.

What caused the fall — unknown yet. Though it’s not excluded that missile or drone caught it. But even if it fell on its own initiative, this is already good. The number of orc aircraft retrofitted to carry aeroballistic missiles is extremely limited. Among them, machines with significant remaining engine hours — even fewer. Understandably, the enemy uses precisely such machines for combat mission execution. Therefore, this is a painful loss precisely for this aviation segment.

The Raid on Ukraine 10/10/2025 Reveals Aircraft Aging

If the aircraft fell because even on aircraft selected for combat missions, fatal failure occurs leading to machine fall, this means even the best of the best aircraft of this type already work at the edge of resource exhaustion. Recall that aircraft of this type were produced from 1975 to 1994. This means the “freshest” among them is already 31 years old.

According to open data, the manufacturer-established operation limit for these aircraft is 25 years. Then they extended it to 25-40 years. This says that even considering extension, machines already work at or beyond operation limits. The manufacturer gave an operation limit for aircraft airframe — 2,500 flight hours, which after modernization of individual models increased to 4,000 flight hours. And the engine has a 1,500 flight hour limit.

“Kinzhal carriers” already breathe their last. It’s not excluded the machine fell, got tired of flying… It doesn’t care, and we don’t care either. And because the apparatus was used for combat application — launching a missile at Ukraine — it was one of those that looked like “cucumbers.” We can assume the rest are in even worse shape. And if so, someone might not manage to eject.

Another positive moment not to be missed: as of now, supposedly none of our citizens died.

The raid on Ukraine 10/10/2025 revealed troubling questions about Kyiv air defense performance, yet also demonstrated Russia’s aging aircraft fleet limitations. When your “best” MiG-31s start falling from exhaustion after launching missiles, the strategic picture changes significantly.