Russians surrounded at Lyman: Propagandists Panic

September 30, 2022February 10, 2026

Since last night, positive information has been coming from the Lyman area, but it remains unofficial. Therefore, summarizing it before corresponding statements from the Armed Forces of Ukraine command makes no sense. As usual, this is done to avoid tipping off the enemy about something they may not yet know. The situation changes when the same information begins circulating in enemy media and largely matches what our sources have been reporting for several hours. In such cases, we can rely on what is already known to the occupying troops’ command. According to enemy sources themselves, the Russians surrounded at Lyman have reached a critical phase.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine took the Russian grouping in Lyman into a “cauldron” on the day of annexation by Vladimir Putin of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as Donbas.

Characteristically, they now actively reference the same sources that our press regularly relies on for information. Moreover, this drift occurred during the operation to liberate Kharkiv oblast, since then these sources gave a realistic picture of unfolding events, later confirmed officially by Armed Forces command. And now it looks approximately like this:

The day before, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned of the threat of a second major Russian defeat after Kharkiv in Lyman, Donetsk oblast. Experts predicted it could happen any day. Yesterday the Armed Forces surrounded the city from the west, north, and northeast, leaving one supply line for Russian troops through the settlement of Torske. However, it was also under fire control of Ukrainian forces. By midnight, the Armed Forces managed to actually close Lyman into a cauldron…

The Encirclement Tightens

And in fact, the situation may turn out even more serious. From previous events in Kharkiv Oblast, we already saw that when our forces break through the enemy’s defense and enter operational space, they go deep into occupied territory. As far as logistics allows and as far as forces are enough to provide flank cover for the breakthrough group. There are no grounds to believe everything here can develop in some other way, and today the Russians surrounded at Lyman situation is particularly interesting.

According to information coming from the enemy, the Armed Forces gave hints several times that if the Lyman grouping quickly retreated from the city, it would have a chance to preserve most of its personnel. But it stayed in place. They say comrade Pootin personally watches the situation. In this case, no one else could give the order to retreat. If in the epic with the Izium grouping pootin simply couldn’t believe what they carefully reported to him from the front, and therefore he clearly dozed off with his personal orders, then regarding Lyman he clearly gave the command «not one step back». More than ten sources from the enemy gave precisely such a formulation. Therefore, the grouping didn’t use the opportunity to withdraw.

And here it must be noted that a couple of days ago the occupiers already lost the possibility of organized withdrawal. Leaving the city in columns became decisively impossible due to the Armed Forces establishing fire control over the corridor through which they could exit. The logic of events there looked approximately as follows. Ten days ago, it was still possible to advance groupings on the flanks that could ensure the corridor’s passability. Then they could start withdrawing their troops, covering themselves with a rearguard. Losses on the march would undoubtedly occur, since even then columns would be under fire. Nevertheless, the main part of troops could exit together with equipment, albeit with losses.

Putin’s Fatal Order

That is, precisely commanders on the spot can determine the moment when it’s time to exit. So that they organize it correctly and so they suffer minimum losses. Precisely this we observed when our military exited Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Two moments became decisive there. First — cities were destroyed to such an extent that there was nothing to defend there anymore. Also no way to defend. Second moment — the ability to supply troops with material resources, replenishment, and medical evacuation.

As soon as all this becomes on the verge of possible, you must withdraw troops. Unless, of course, some powerful external operation to unblock the grouping is planned. Only in this case can you order defenders to hold their position. Everything else will be done by the unblocking grouping’s forces.

Pidars¹ in Lyman received orders to stay in place. Overall, you can give such an order only in one case — when a major unblocking operation is being prepared. But as far as one can understand, pootin planned nothing of the sort. Therefore, such howling arose among moscow propagandists. You can have no doubt that professional military consultants explained the situation to them on their fingers. There you must either withdraw, preserving personnel and material part of troops, or stand. But on condition that a major troop grouping already has the task of unblocking these troops. Or what’s called “unclenching the pincers” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which threatened to close into an encirclement ring.

But if an unblocking operation isn’t planned and if there are neither forces nor means for it, then in such a case retreat is simply inevitable. Its prohibition almost guarantees encirclement. And it, this encirclement, starts from the point mentioned above — namely, from the moment when the enemy can still exit the encirclement in an organized manner.

The Window Closes

Yes, this won’t be easy, since fire will come from the front and flanks. But it’s possible. Exactly until these flanks squeeze the exit corridor to such a minimum that it will already be shot through from both sides. In that case, withdrawal with equipment is partially possible, but losses will be very large. You’ll have to withdraw only on combat vehicles capable of firing during withdrawal. Everything not equipped with weapons is already lost. You must abandon it, since all this will be ballast.

Well, and the next stage, already the last before the ring forms completely, we saw near Izyum. Apparently, the Izyum grouping command underestimated the severity of the situation. They tried to execute withdrawal precisely by the previous variant, on armor. But very quickly it turned out they had missed this opportunity.  Armor became a unmasking factor and an excellent target for the Armed Forces. Therefore, most of the troops that exited the encirclement of the Izium grouping managed to leave on foot, through forests, already avoiding automobile or rail roads. At the same time they bore losses, but while a dense ring didn’t arise, this possibility still remained. Part of the troops took advantage of it, but already in a mode of disorderly flight.

Judging by what the orcs² themselves now publish on the Network, right now near Lyman this is precisely that phase. Part of the surrounded grouping’s personnel tries to retreat on foot through forests and fields. There’s still no complete encirclement ring in the classical sense of this word. But if yesterday the direction of possible retreat was already shot through by our field artillery, today it’s already shot through by small arms. Taking into account that our strike groups already have 50-caliber heavy machine guns as armament, which will make cabbage out of anything. Well, again, videos of «running deer» appeared on the Network — or more precisely, pidars running through the forest.

Historical Echoes: A New Stalingrad?

If everything really reached that stage, as it was near Izium, and you can only run away «light», then it looks like the enemy grouping in Lyman really got stuck. We’ve encountered different values for this grouping’s strength, but all are contradictory. Probably soon the Armed Forces command will clarify all details of what’s happening. The Russians surrounded at Lyman situation mirrors historical moments that orcs made their fetish. We know for sure only that formations of the 20th Combined Arms Army form the core of this grouping.

Things stand approximately as shown on the map below. The current situation echoes historical moments that orcs made their fetish. Let’s just recall that at the end of 1942 — beginning of 1943, near Stalingrad the Wehrmacht’s 6th Army fell into encirclement, under the command of Field Marshal Paulus.

Orcs still call this event «turning point» in the entire war. Therefore, the very phrase «encirclement of combined arms army» has special magical meaning for them. But now everything says that something similar developed with their combined arms army. The orcs themselves write that the Armed Forces now hammer with everything they have. They believe the grouping is simply being destroyed to zero. Hysterical messages already exist from there that it looks like they’re already late for surrender into captivity. But in any case, everything there is very sad.

The Trap Closes

Probably today or tomorrow much will become clear. Something will be said officially. But if everything looks as enemy sources describe it, the Armed Forces haven’t done this yet. The occupiers’ army awaits even more troubles, which naturally flow from what’s visible on the map. The Russians surrounded at Lyman demonstrated once again that Putin’s micromanagement leads to catastrophic losses for his own troops.

¹Pidar (pronounced “pidar”) – Ukrainian military slang for a Russian service member. In radio communications, the word “Pidar” sounds shorter and clearer than “Enemy” especially under EW.

²Orcs – a common term for Russians who support or participate in the armed aggression against Ukraine. Dehumanizing? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.