The Tuzla Island 2003 Conflict Lesson

We often shift the timeline at least ten years back and always remind about 2003, the Tuzla island 2003 conflict in the Kerch Strait. Russia lay in a semi-collapsed state, and the West provided humanitarian aid to the almost immobilized huge country.

Back then there were no Maidans, no ATO, and nothing of what today’s Kremlin propaganda talks about. Yet war stopped literally hours before starting. In other words, Russia was already really preparing to begin Crimea occupation, already deployed troops and even field hospitals.

The Logic Test That Moscow Fails

This is worth remembering for those who dive into enemy rhetoric and seek justifications for Moscow’s actions. This is a classic example of negative logical problem solving. Simply take all these Moscow arguments, which Putin and his favorite gloomy horse Lavrov put forward, write it all in a column and move to 2003, where none of these arguments existed in nature. Yet war almost started anyway.

But actually we need to dig much deeper, which we’ve done in separate articles. Right now, in “dry residue” mode, we can observe the difference in what ruSSia does and doesn’t do. Pootin would very much like to grab the Baltic countries. His lackeys openly talk about restoring Sovok borders.

However, Pootin climbed into Georgia and Ukraine, which remained non-aligned countries. He didn’t dare climb into Estonia, covered by NATO Charter Article 5, and now physically covered by
Alliance troops.

Ukraine’s Fatal Mistake

From this follows that Ukraine made a mistake by remaining a non-aligned country. We should have gone into NATO together with Baltic countries. But our Constitution spoke about non-aligned status. Because yesterday’s communists adopted the Constitution.

This means the mistake happened earlier. Right after gaining independence, we didn’t follow Poland’s, Romania’s, or the Baltics’ path. We didn’t replant all this red-bellied scum. That’s when we missed our chance to detach from Muscovy forever without great bloodshed.

But everyone’s smart in hindsight. Back then, in the mid-90s, it was hard to imagine what sitting on two chairs could lead to. We already know this tactic’s price. Belarus has this still ahead. They’ll still have to sip their misfortune until Muscovy starts falling apart.

Russia’s Inevitable Collapse

We’ve highlighted the necessity and inevitability of Russia’s collapse more than once or twice. Several thaw periods acted on Moscow like a dangerous infection hotbed. Temperature increase inevitably caused increased virulence of this plague, and it splashed far beyond its borders. Therefore, the time came for radical actions and actual disinfection of this plague swamp.

As we’ve repeatedly noted, Eastern European countries proved most adequately tuned to Moscow’s imperial chauvinism surge. They sounded the alarm, which made the rest of EU and NATO countries wake up. Yet even after three years, this awakening didn’t transition into active action phase aimed at eliminating the plague center.

The Turning Point

Perhaps we’re exactly at that point when the situation will start changing. A new Europe and world configuration will start emerging, without considering Russia’s interests, and then — without Russia itself. Here’s important to note this: Europe already heard quite rational and substantiated speeches that clearly described Russia’s role and what threatens from wrong assessment of its place in current European and world arrangement.

Another thing — almost nobody wanted to hear this and didn’t hear it. Therefore, Europe still conducts conversations about hybrid wars, separatists, rebels, ISIS, Assad, Iran, and other things. Everything can be reduced to one denominator: Pootin and Russia. Remove them from the stage, and hybrid wars and global terrorism will disappear from planet Earth.

The Tuzla Island 2003 Conflict Lesson

The Tuzla island 2003 conflict should have been our wake-up call. RuSSia showed its hand more then decade ago. We saw the troops, the hospitals, the intention. The only mistake was ours — believing non-aligned status would protect us.