Thoughts on Aircraft for Ukraine: Will We Get F-16s?

January 29, 2023February 20, 2026

Information flows from various sources suggest that Ukraine’s Air Force may soon receive American aircraft — most likely F-16s. The question of aircraft for Ukraine has moved from “if” to “when”. At least, F-16s may be the first to appear in our skies. How this will actually look remains hard to say, but it’s quite probable that in this case, the information should be perceived politically rather than practically. The US, through a series of well-planned leaks, is announcing to Moscow an already-made decision to transfer aircraft to Ukraine. To make this delivery more concrete, they named the aircraft type. Most likely, this was done so the Kremlin would realize these will be American aircraft — not MiGs or Sukhois purchased from third countries.

When the States supply something covertly, it happens precisely and without the slightest leaks — neither from their side nor from ours. Sometimes we learn that a new weapons system is operational only from the enemy it struck. Here, however, the leak was planned and deliberate to achieve a double effect. The very information that Ukraine will receive American aircraft already psychologically pressures the enemy. We see this both directly and indirectly.

Panic in Moscow: Why the Leaks Work

Right now it’s happening through their military-political leadership, which delivers outraged speeches and scatters its red lines, and through clearly panicked notes in their propaganda. Let’s put it this way: they understand perfectly well that they might see these aircraft in the sky over Engels, for example, or Moscow. It’s one thing to talk about how their aviation is the very best. It’s quite another when it’s terrifying to use it near the front line, since it immediately starts adding itself to the loss list.

Their military understands this — and surely shares its grim thoughts with propagandists. That’s exactly why those propagandists are thrashing in hysteria and talking about nukes. This is a sign of weakness and panic, since understanding arrives that their conventional means cannot oppose Western ones. Ukraine has demonstrated this literally in every weapons segment. So the squealing about nuclear weapons is a signature under the fact that they’ve already realized the pitifulness of the situation and that their vaunted weapons are genuine trash.

Aircraft for Ukraine: What the Leaks Really Mean

So we have grounds to believe that the States released exactly as much information into the airwaves as needed at the moment — both about equipment types and approximate delivery timelines to Ukraine. Americans have extensive experience providing military assistance to their partners and have perfectly mastered the technology of presenting the topic. But right now another plot is unfolding that holds no less interest.

Bulgaria helped us tremendously with weapons and ammunition back when the West was just spinning up its logistics system. Artillery ammunition in Soviet calibers proved especially useful, since at that moment we simply didn’t have Western artillery. Furthermore, Bulgarians supplied large volumes of fuel. But the Polish resource Defence24, relying on several sources and its own research, concluded that Bulgaria played an even bigger role than recently became known.

According to the resource, before large-scale hostilities began in February last year, Ukraine had one assault squadron armed with 17 Su-25 aircraft. We remember what fierce air battles occurred at the initial invasion stage — many saw it with their own eyes. Back then, enemy aviation operated over all Ukrainian territory. Our Air Force and air defense had to make considerable effort to knock the enemy out of our sky. Nevertheless, during this period our aviation suffered its heaviest losses. As the Polish publication writes, at least 5 of the 17 Su-25 aircraft were lost as a result of these combat operations, and even more, undoubtedly, sustained numerous damages.

Bulgaria’s Silent Delivery: 14 Su-25s When Ukraine Needed Them Most

Obviously, at this very moment — when the battle for dominance in our sky and, most importantly, over the battlefield was underway — the question of aircraft for Ukraine became most acute. Not just any aircraft, but specifically spare parts for damaged machines and replenishing lost Su-25s and other types. Well, attack aircraft precisely suffer the greatest losses because they work over the front line and are subject to attacks both from the air and from the ground.

At this moment, most likely, Bulgaria supplied us with 14 Su-25 aircraft and all the “accessories” in the form of spare parts and repair kits. Of these, 12 are single-seat combat aircraft and 2 are two-seat training-combat aircraft. If the publication’s information fully corresponds to reality, then we had 17 aircraft of this type and received 14 from Bulgaria — practically the same number. Admittedly, this is a strong move — and without a single word, dancing with tambourines, or snot-smearing.

Around 2020, 8 aircraft underwent repair and modernization at the 558th aircraft repair plant in Baranavichy. They received new capabilities — in terms of avionics, electronic warfare, and compatibility with new types of weapons. That is, they received the most advanced configuration possible for such aircraft. We’ll note on our own that the Bulgarians most likely installed their own communications equipment there, compatible with NATO standards.

Foreign Policy correspondent Jacek Dech was in Stuttgart, there the donor countries’ coordination center for Ukraine (IDCC) was created. Jacek learned that aircraft in disassembled form travel from one Eastern European country to Ukraine. There they assemble to flight readiness. The country’s name wasn’t disclosed. But figuring out which one had 14 Su-25 aircraft wasn’t particularly difficult. Thus the circle closed.

When Deliveries Stay Silent vs. When Leaks Happen

All this means that when necessary to hide even large deliveries, it happens precisely and effectively. We’ll note on our own: not only Su-25s entered Ukraine this way and not only during the time period described above. We draw such conclusions from our own experience. When something similar happened right before our eyes, not a sound aired, not a single letter fell into the network. So when necessary, everything happens very quietly. Conversely, if “leaks” occur, they’re made at the right time. Most importantly — in the right volume.

When aircraft for Ukraine deliveries need secrecy, they get secrecy. When they need announcement, they get carefully controlled leaks. The F-16 information serves a purpose — psychological pressure on the enemy and political signaling to allies. The real deliveries? Those happen in the shadows, assembled piece by piece, arriving when needed most.

We once again call on everyone to exercise restraint and, God forbid, don’t curse countries that supply us with at least something — or at least we have grounds to believe they may be doing so right now. Be vigilant toward those who do this publicly. Especially toward fugitive Russians. There’s nowhere to put a stamp of approval there.
We will win!