Wagner Putsch Ended: Consequences for Putin Ahead

June 24, 2023March 16, 2026

Contradictory information has been circulating online for two hours now that as of 7 PM, the Wagner putsch ended. And in this situation, important consequences remain regardless.

First and most important: regardless of what this actually was — a genuine coup attempt or staged performance — everyone has now seen that the internal structures of Pootin’s power aren’t quite as iron-clad as they seemed all these years. If this was indeed theater, it will have long and negative consequences, primarily for Pootin himself. Because if you stage such wild nonsense, you’re sending the world a signal that you can no longer hold your power by any familiar means and you need such strange performances. After this, Putin will truly be perceived globally as a complete inadequate sitting at the helm of his state.

Another consequence lies in the fact that his inner circle, not initiated into the details of this plan and scared shitless, won’t forgive him this trick now. After all, they sold their loyalty to the de facto dictator in exchange for a calm and well-fed life. But they no longer have the well-fed comfort they got used to over the last two decades, and now they’ve lost their calm as well. If this was simulation, it deprived Putin’s henchmen of that sense of equilibrium they achieved through humiliation before higher-ranking officials and complete submission to Pootin.

Losses, Lies, and Broken Censorship

Third moment: during this time, much got said that normally stays under harshest censorship. Including about Orc* losses. Such heavy “sediment” in the drink of power is better left unshaken, because in such case everything their propaganda successfully resolved will now work with far greater creaking. If this was show, everyone who participated lied — precisely those the public believed unconditionally.

But perhaps we observed genuine putsch in initial phase and everything that happened was real. In such case, Prigozhin worked in the provocateur’s role, since too many military and civilian persons expressed support to him not simply for his beautiful bald head but for his promise to end the stupidity, corruption, and bureaucratic lawlessness, and also to hold accountable those who groundlessly started and incompetently waged war against Ukraine. In such case, all these people will undergo repressions. Prigozhin himself, having backed down, will also become a beaten card. They’ll liquidate him because he took on the matter and didn’t carry it through to the end.

The Crack in the System Shows

In any case, until this moment no obvious split existed inside the Rabid Federation along any direction. Now it manifested itself. Nobody had seen it for a long time and didn’t hope to see it, but here it is — look how it all shapes up. In any case, such a coup attempt won’t add strength to Putin’s vertical of power. On contrary, it will show smarter pretenders: everything can be done even within Putin’s system. Its stability proved questionable.

However it may be, the marker of irreversibility in these events never manifested. We wrote that reports came through stating Wagner columns moved toward Millerovo air base and the airfield in Borisoglebsk, where aviation nuclear munitions storage sits. We noted that enough time existed to reach these two points and Wagner had sufficient forces to take all this under control. But no information on this account ever appeared.

Had this happened, Prigozhin could have issued ultimatums to Pootin as equals. However it may be, everything that occurred, in dry residue, we view with a plus sign. The Wagner putsch ended without achieving its goals, but it cracked the foundation of a system everyone believed unshakeable. Whether genuine revolt or elaborate theater, the performance revealed what Putin desperately needed hidden. His power structure is brittle, his inner circle terrified, censorship dam has cracks. How it develops further — we’ll see.

*Orcs – a common term for Russians who support or participate in the armed aggression against Ukraine. Dehumanizing? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.