Will Russia Respect the Energy Truce?

January 29, 2026January 30, 2026

It’s long been known that any war proceeds according to its own, long and well-known rules. Therefore, trying to do something while ignoring these rules, you’ll definitely get a negative result. If we paraphrase one of these rules with the words of the well-known gangster Al Capone, it might look like this: “You can achieve more with a kind word and a revolver than with a kind word alone”. And in very simple words — during war, you can never ask for anything. War itself is a process of forcible alienation of rights, property, or some other valuable substances. Simply put, seizure already happens without the consent of one of the parties. For this very reason, all rumors about an energy truce should be viewed not in an abstract ‘peaceful’ sense, but strictly within a wartime context.

The only option that can be implemented in a non-forceful way during war is exchange. Such an option indicates that the parties have the ability to act mirror-like. But certain actions are equally burdensome for both one and the other side. In such a scenario, there’s no one who asks, and therefore only this can work.

We observe regular exchanges of prisoners for only one reason — a certain number of them exists on both sides. The enemy is ready to exchange his prisoners for ours. Otherwise, our prisoners, every single one, would go to hard labor, as happened after World War II with German and Japanese prisoners.

The Energy Truce: Is It Really Happening?

And right now, with a high degree of probability, we can talk about a similar exchange beginning to be implemented. I’ll immediately warn that such an assumption is made exclusively based on information from that side. But it has such a specific character that it can be admitted for consideration. So, on the Swamps¹ in social networks today, howling of this plan went like on two screenshots:

Overall, this could be ignored if only because Orcs² lie like they breathe. But here the connotation of these speeches is important. Orcs clearly enjoyed the view of dark Kyiv and other cities. Their informed sources write that Khuilo³ gets physiological pleasure from such videos.

On the one hand, all this looks suspicious. On the other hand — why write this if there’s no reason for it?
But that’s not all yet. It’s worth looking at what the FSB mouthpiece of propaganda writes. It practically always covers the higher political leadership of the Swamps. And there — an unusual text that simply clearly fits into the general outline of such reasoning:

At this moment, there’s no official confirmation of this information. We’ll immediately note that the refusal to strike energy infrastructure may rather be a pause before new attacks. At the same time, it’s important to understand that Ukraine changed strategy — after active strikes on oil refineries, a series of strikes were also delivered on infrastructure that ensures the life of our cities. The example of Belgorod showed total unpreparedness for such a scenario. The authorities discussed that if strikes are scaled to Kursk, Bryansk, and other border regional centers, this could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. Without long preparation, avoiding such a scenario is possible only through mutual refusal of strikes. However, there’s no such information now.

Three Years vs. Three Months

Here it’s important to note the following. The enemy has been hitting our energy infrastructure for over three years now. Let’s just remember where the first Shaheds were shot down over Kyiv. The DTEK office center still stands without glass and, it seems, doesn’t work. That is, for us, strikes on energy facilities have already become routine. Another thing is that their consequences are different and very different. But all those who could and wanted to adapt to such a period of war have already done so. They reduced inconveniences to the possible minimum. Someone left Ukraine or went to other regions of the country where energy is better. But for Orcs, such strikes turned out to be a complete surprise.

At first, we didn’t have strike weapons that could reach such targets. Then they appeared, but there was a US ban on strikes on the internationally recognized territory of the Swamps. Then there were bans on strikes on any energy facilities on Swamps territory.

As correctly noted in the FSB message, our military at this time focused on hitting oil refineries. They didn’t touch the enemy’s energy infrastructure for a very long time. Single “arrivals” at substations or something similar were noticed only near the border, in places where enemy military formations were located. And finally, it flew deeper. Both distribution nodes and generating capacities went under the knife. Thus, everything that the enemy itself attacks got into the target list. Obviously — with the same result.

The Tables Have Turned

As of now, the question of total evacuation of Belgorod and temporarily occupied Donetsk stands open. Several more regional centers of the Swamps are on the way: Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, and even Voronezh. And note, the population there is quite large. Therefore, you can’t evacuate everyone.

So everything that Orcs prepared for us for over three years, they themselves experienced in three months of intensive work from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, it’s not excluded that plans for large-scale attacks already on moscow are somewhere at the exit. Therefore, any day now, Orcs will be looking at blackout not in Kyiv but in their moscow. They can’t not know this there, at least in general terms.

And only with such a scenario does a base arise for exchange or that very energy truce. Orcs would never have agreed to such a ban if not for the losses they already suffer in mirror fashion. At least that’s how it can work. Overall, we’ll look at this literally the next night. As we know, the favorite time for delivering massive combined strikes on Ukraine is the night from Friday to Saturday. There’s not long to wait.

¹Swamps – an ironic name for Russia, emphasizing decay, stagnation, and filth. The Commander of the USF, Robert Browdie, and most soldiers use this word.

²Orcs – a common term for Russians who support or participate in the armed aggression against Ukraine. Dehumanizing? Yes. Accurate? Also yes.

³Khuilo – the most popular nickname for Russian dictator V. Putin. First used during the 2014 invasion, and since 2022 most Ukrainians call him only that. See more on Wikipedia.