Are There Effective Medicine for Russian Provocations?

Everyone surely remembers how the era of hybrid wars began. The enemy executed things either through other hands or flatly refused to take responsibility. They called the perpetrators of military operations miners, tractor drivers, rebels, or something similar — but definitely not connected to the Russian authorities. These tricks no longer work on us. Over many years, we’ve learned an important axiom: when a Russian opens their mouth, they always lie. Yet Russians continue playing their games with Europeans. But is there any medicine for Russian provocations?

Representatives from the swamps repeatedly stated they had no idea whose drones flew into Poland. After that, they claimed fighters over Estonia weren’t Russian either. Moreover, they know nothing about drones that disrupted airports in Denmark. But now the story continues.

Several NATO countries announced they will shoot down drones and aircraft violating their airspace automatically, without warning. Poland, Germany, France, and Sweden promised this seriously—the statements came from high-ranking officials. The challenge was accepted and escalation went up. The Kremlin could have sat quietly, waiting for the moment when these threatening promises would be confirmed or refuted in practice. But they couldn’t resist and “burned themselves.”

Russia’s Threat

The swamps’ ambassador to France, one Alexey Meshkov, stated that if any NATO country shoots down a Russian aircraft, it will inevitably lead to war. He didn’t specify where Russian aircraft would be shot down. In other words, an official person (ambassador) says: if you shoot down our aircraft in your own airspace, we’ll start a war.

This is a very telling moment, calculated to intimidate European countries. Yet two can play this game. An experienced player not only accepts the opponent’s bet but raises it. The key is understanding what the opponent is doing and acting as they don’t expect.

The Proposed Solution

As an option, we can propose a scheme that can be framed with proper legal norms. Then a very threatening and effective medicine for Russian provocations might emerge.

Its contours are already outlined:

The swamps threaten to start war if their aircraft gets shot down by any NATO country in its own sky. NATO countries promise to shoot down violators, but only in their own sky. In neutral sky, this would violate international law rules, and NATO countries don’t want to be aggressors.

But all these conditions can be turned around. All Pootin’s threats will simply collapse at every critical point.

Breaking the Pattern

Orcs expect NATO air defense and aviation to wait for the moment of airspace violation before taking active measures. But as we know, the aggressor chooses the place and time of confrontation. Therefore, NATO would already be losing at the very beginning of a possible fight. Plus, political leadership of each NATO country will avoid situations that could start large-scale military confrontation.

Simply suppose that tomorrow, Russian aircraft fly into Polish sky from Kaliningrad or Belarus, following the Estonia scheme. Obviously, they’ll scramble aviation and prepare air defense for interception. But is there confidence that Polish pilots have orders to shoot down Russian aircraft without additional confirmation? If not, Russian provocations will repeat again and again.

A Fantastic Scenario

Now let’s take some fantasy. We know orcs easily place their weapons, units, and even nuclear-warhead missiles in Belarus. Why can’t Swedes, for example, do the same?

Tomorrow it becomes known that Sweden transfers some of their Gripen aircraft to Ukraine. They paint yellow-blue circles of Ukrainian Air Force and apply Ukrainian tactical numbers on aircraft. But the fighters are still being tested by Ukrainian pilots in Sweden.

Importantly, these aircraft have combat load and are fully ready for battle. At the moment when these aircraft “prepared to fly to Ukraine”, MiG-31 or Su-35 orcs fly toward Swedish airspace with clear intention to enter it.

The Beauty of the Plan

Ukrainian aircraft already took off and then… orcs appear in crosshairs… What next?

Air battle begins over neutral waters, near the Swedish border. As a result of the battle, a pair of “Su” dive into Baltic Sea waves and their pilots go fry in hell… What next?

Aircraft are shot down, but Sweden has nothing to do with it. Aircraft are Ukrainian, the battle wasn’t in Swedish sky but over neutral waters — so whom will Khuilo declare war on?
Ukraine?
Really?
What have we had for 3.5 years?
Who destroyed 400+ Russian fighters and 30% of Russian strategic bombers?
Ok, let them declare war on us again…

The most interesting part: by coincidence, Ukrainian pilots could test aircraft with Ukrainian yellow-blue circles in Finland, Poland, Estonia, or Denmark. If they encounter Russian aircraft, our pilots won’t hesitate or wait for orders from above.

The Hybrid Medicine for Russian Provocations

Hybrid? Undoubtedly! But these would be the best medicine for Russian provocations against orc escalation. Most importantly—everything exactly as they love it, hybrid-style.

In the future, we could fantasize about the Russian fleet and Ukrainian sea drones. Russian Black Sea flotilla is almost half-destroyed by them, and its remnants fled to Novorossiysk. Would it be interesting to do the same with the Russian Baltic fleet?